Finding Value in Sports Betting
One of the least understood concepts
for new sports bettors is the concept of value. That's understandable, as many
veteran bettors have trouble with the notion, as well.
Placing a bet because it offers good
value does not necessarily mean you believe the team you're wagering on is
going to win that particular game, especially when you're betting on an
underdog on the money line.
If a team is +200 and you believe
they will win 40 percent of the time, you have a good wager, even though you
believe the team will lose more often than they will win.
In our example above, if the team we
take at +200 wins four games out of 10, we'll show a decent profit. If we wager
$100 to win $200, we will lose $100 six of the 10 times, but win $200 the other
times, which will leave us with an overall profit of $200.
Those of you who bet on horse races
are probably familiar with this concept, which is often referred to as an
"overlay" among horse racing bettors. If a horse which should be a
legitimate 3-to-1 shot goes off at odds of 5-to-1, you have an overlay, which
should be a moneymaking situation over time.
The same premise works in sports
handicapping when betting the money line. It doesn't necessarily have to be an
underdog, either. If a good baseball team with its best pitcher is throwing
against a weak team with a poor pitcher, we may see the favorite at -300. If
your handicapping shows the favorite will win four out of five times, you will
have a decent wager, as you will win $100 four out of five times and lose $300
the other time, which will still leave a profit of $100.
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Finding
Point Spread Value
Finding value when betting point
spreads isn't so cut and dry, as each team has a 50-50 chance of covering the
spread, at least in theory. When you hear sports bettors talk about finding
value when betting against point spreads, it's simply a matter of betting into
a line they believe is several points too high or several points too low.
If a team is favored by five points
and the bettor believes the line should be nine points, there is value in
betting the favorite. If the reverse were true, in that a legitimate five-point
favorite is favored by nine points, the value would be betting on the underdog.
Unlike betting into the money line,
bettors who are looking for value expect to win, although that will seldom
happen more than 60 percent of the time.
Finding value with totals works in
the same manner as finding value with point spreads, except we're betting that
a number is either too high or too low.
The key to long-term success is
finding good value. If your judgment is sound and you wager only when you have
an advantage, you'll find yourself in the black at the end of the season.
