College Basketball and Public Betting
The idea for this article came after
reading a piece on betting against the public in college basketball from our
friends at Sports
Insights.
In their article, which can be found
at Sports
Insights they look at how favorites of six points or more have done
against the point spread depending on the percentage of wagers the team is
receiving.
For the most part, the higher
percentage of bets the favorite was receiving, the less likely they were to
cover the point spread. When you come to favorites receiving 75-percent or more
of the wagers, they cover the spread just 46.1-percent of the time.
The one filter Sports Insights used
was that the game had to be heavier bet than an average game, which indicated
the game was being bet by the public. This can be determined by simply looking
at the number of bets listed on the Sports Insights website.
What
It Really Means
Some of you have probably already
calculated that if the favorite is covering the spread 46.1 percent of the
time, that means the underdog is covering the spread 53.9 percent of the time.
That much is true.
You're also probably wondering what
the big deal is, which is where most people are making a big mistake.
First, 53.9 percent will generate a
flat-bet profit over the long run and is better than 90 to 95 percent of sports
bettors will do.
Secondly, a trend or system that
hits at that rate over time is even more valuable for the fact that it can keep
you off of losing wagers, which is even more valuable over the long run since
you lose an extra 10 percent on a losing wager.
Winning
Percentage Equivalent
For practical purposes, let's round
up our 53.9 percent to 54 percent and look at the value of keeping you off of
those bets that you will just win 46 percent of the time.
If you were to wager $110 on 100 games and win 46 and lose 54, you're net loss would be $1,340. If you wagered on the other side of those 100 games and won 54 and lost 46, you're profit would be $340.
But where the real value comes into
play is when a trend will keep you off of those losing wagers. In order to show
a profit of $1,340 dollars a bettor would have to win 58.75 percent of their
wagers, which very seldom happens in the sports betting world.
Any amount that you save when
betting sports is just as good as winning, as it impacts your bottom line
exactly the same.
Not only will avoiding college
basketball favorites of six points or more and getting bet heavily by the
public save you money over the long run, smart handicapping and shopping for
the best number is likely to boost that 53.9 winning percentage several points
and increase your profits over the long haul.
