With its wager-friendly dime line and the inability of
bookmakers to influence the outcome of games through a pointspread,
baseball betting may be a player's best bet.
That's certainly true statistically whereNevada
The sophisticated player can enhance his odds even more if he's willing to analyze the five core factors that most influence Major League Baseball betting lines:
Pitching: No one player in any team sport has as much influence on the betting line as a starting pitcher has in baseball. In fact, a starting hurler is so important to the line that the player's name very often is listed next to the team. The old adage that "good pitching stops good hitting" has resonated with oddsmakers to the point where a quality pitcher on a good team is almost never an underdog, especially at home. So don't expect to see a "plus" with the Yankees' CC Sabathia, the Red Sox's Josh Beckett, the Mets' Johan Santana, the Diamondbacks' Brandon Webb (currently on the disabled list), the Blue Jays' Roy Halladay or the Cubs' Carlos Zambrano, very often. And even on those rare occasions when these starting pitchers are not the wagering choice--for instance, when Toronto visits New York or Boston--a top pitcher such as Halladay would be less of an underdog, maybe +140 (bet $100 to win $140), where almost any other pitcher would be +180 or more.
Left/Right: Managers still platoon certain players, trying to get as many left-handed hitters against right-handed pitching (and vice versa) as possible but nearly every Major League Baseball team lineup has a performance preference. For example, the Yankees, with lefty hitters Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu (now with the Angels) and Robinson Canoe in the starting lineup last year, hit 19 points higher (.277 to .258) against right-handed pitching than they did against left-handed pitching. The Yankees' rival, the Red Sox, were just the opposite, hitting 19 points higher against left-handers than right-handers.Boston
Day/Night: In general, batters see the ball better in the unaltered light of day than at night so you can expect slightly more runs in day games than in night games. Obviously, this has an impact on over/under totals. Also, like the left/right factor, some teams are better in day games than night games. The Royals, for example, had an ROI (return on investment) of +21.5 perfect in day games last season but the Indians were -24.5 percent in daylight.
Surface: Some teams, usually because of their pitching, are more suited to slower grass fields than slicker, faster fields made of Astroturf and other artificial surfaces. A sinker ball pitcher who keeps the ball low and induces a lot of ground balls, such as the Yankees' Chien-Ming Wang, will have more success on natural grass whereas a team that makes contact and does not strike out a lot, such as the Twins and Angels, will produce more hits on synthetic surfaces.
Home/Away: Just about every team is better at home than on the road, especially at the plate. In fact, not a single American League team had a higher batting average away than at home and only four National League teams, Florida, Milwaukee, San Diego and San Francisco, were better hitters on the road than at home last season. Bookmakers know this as well but sometimes confidence in the home team can be misplaced and a team that has one or more of the previously discussed factors working in its favor can be an excellent bet, particularly at a robust price.
Knowledge of these five keys could unlock the door to baseball betting success.
That's certainly true statistically where
The sophisticated player can enhance his odds even more if he's willing to analyze the five core factors that most influence Major League Baseball betting lines:
Pitching: No one player in any team sport has as much influence on the betting line as a starting pitcher has in baseball. In fact, a starting hurler is so important to the line that the player's name very often is listed next to the team. The old adage that "good pitching stops good hitting" has resonated with oddsmakers to the point where a quality pitcher on a good team is almost never an underdog, especially at home. So don't expect to see a "plus" with the Yankees' CC Sabathia, the Red Sox's Josh Beckett, the Mets' Johan Santana, the Diamondbacks' Brandon Webb (currently on the disabled list), the Blue Jays' Roy Halladay or the Cubs' Carlos Zambrano, very often. And even on those rare occasions when these starting pitchers are not the wagering choice--for instance, when Toronto visits New York or Boston--a top pitcher such as Halladay would be less of an underdog, maybe +140 (bet $100 to win $140), where almost any other pitcher would be +180 or more.
Left/Right: Managers still platoon certain players, trying to get as many left-handed hitters against right-handed pitching (and vice versa) as possible but nearly every Major League Baseball team lineup has a performance preference. For example, the Yankees, with lefty hitters Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu (now with the Angels) and Robinson Canoe in the starting lineup last year, hit 19 points higher (.277 to .258) against right-handed pitching than they did against left-handed pitching. The Yankees' rival, the Red Sox, were just the opposite, hitting 19 points higher against left-handers than right-handers.
Day/Night: In general, batters see the ball better in the unaltered light of day than at night so you can expect slightly more runs in day games than in night games. Obviously, this has an impact on over/under totals. Also, like the left/right factor, some teams are better in day games than night games. The Royals, for example, had an ROI (return on investment) of +21.5 perfect in day games last season but the Indians were -24.5 percent in daylight.
Surface: Some teams, usually because of their pitching, are more suited to slower grass fields than slicker, faster fields made of Astroturf and other artificial surfaces. A sinker ball pitcher who keeps the ball low and induces a lot of ground balls, such as the Yankees' Chien-Ming Wang, will have more success on natural grass whereas a team that makes contact and does not strike out a lot, such as the Twins and Angels, will produce more hits on synthetic surfaces.
Home/Away: Just about every team is better at home than on the road, especially at the plate. In fact, not a single American League team had a higher batting average away than at home and only four National League teams, Florida, Milwaukee, San Diego and San Francisco, were better hitters on the road than at home last season. Bookmakers know this as well but sometimes confidence in the home team can be misplaced and a team that has one or more of the previously discussed factors working in its favor can be an excellent bet, particularly at a robust price.
Knowledge of these five keys could unlock the door to baseball betting success.
