Dustin worth chancing on return
It was here in 2008 that a one-legged Woods produced one of the most courageous and improbable successes in sporting history, making a clutch putt to force a play-off for the US Open before beating a dogged Rocco Mediate over an unwelcome extra 18 holes.
Alongside that, he's won the Farmers no fewer than seven times including as recently as two years ago, when he showed that if you know where to hit it, you can afford to miss a few greens on both courses which share hosting duties.
Woods returns at the lowest point of his professional career, having finished last in the Waste Management Phoenix Open alongside club professional Michael Hopper.
The result was awful, but the manner was nothing short of shocking as one of the outstanding modern sportsmen hacked his way to a second-round 82. Missing one way then the other with the driver raises technical concerns which can soon be fixed; chunking one chip then thinning the next suggests that Tiger's mental strength - the 15th club in his bag - has vanished. Whether it can be refound is now a very real question.
It's the former which acts as host proper, with three of the four rounds played there, while the North offers a little respite during the first two days of competition.
The South Course is a beast, the longest course on the PGA Tour and a par 72 which is unrelenting. Typically among the toughest of its kind in terms of overall scoring average, this silky layout has sharp teeth whatever the weather and it's here that the tournament will be won and lost.
Going low at the shorter and altogether easier North Course is something of a must as not one member of the top 10 last year failed to break 71 there, and this obviously means it should pay to keep on top of in-play opportunities during Thursday and Friday.
Both layouts favour big-hitting, of that there can be little doubt. The best demonstration of this comes in the shape of the 2011 leaderboard, where Bubba Watson got the better of Phil Mickelson, Jhonattan Vegas and Dustin Johnson, but victory for Scott Stallings last year also demonstrates the advantage of hitting the ball 300 yards from the tee.
Much will be made of the rough on the South Course but generally speaking, playing out of a gnarly lie from 120 yards beats 200 from the fairway and it's no surprise that both Bubba and Mickelson have spoken fondly of the fact that they're used to and indeed enjoy playing recovery shots.
In fact, the straight hitters are under the gun from the off because the fairways on both courses are among the toughest to hit on the PGA Tour. This isn't to rule out those who don't get it out there but there's probably a good hint in the fact that Jim Furyk and Matt Kuchar don't play this event.
With this in mind, Dustin Johnson is worth backing to make a splash on his return to competitive action.
The 30-year-old has been off for almost exactly six months but, whether you believe golf.com's exposé or not, this event is very much a logical starting point for 2015 whether his absence to this point has been enforced or otherwise.
Torrey Pines simply suits his big-hitting game and he confirmed as much back in 2012.
"Yeah, I really like the South course. I've been playing here for quite a few years now," Johnson told reporters.
"I really enjoyed playing it. It's a little bit tougher than the North. I usually tend to play really well out there."
This shouldn't surprise us, as Johnson has established a fine west coast record that includes two wins and a 54-hole US Open lead at Pebble Beach which, like Torrey Pines, offers up small, poa annua greens best approached with wedge in hand.
Johnson has also gone close at nearby Riviera in the Northern Trust Open and, as an eight-time PGA Tour winner already, is among the most prolific winners in the world as well as being one of the most talented.
All things being equal, 40/1 would be an absolute steal. After all, he was 16/1 in a market headed by Tiger two years ago. However, there's a big stumbling block and it comes in the shape of his absence since last July and the RBC Canadian Open, one which saw him miss a major, two WGCs and the Ryder Cup.
DJ insists he took a self-imposed break to deal with alcohol issues and if that's the case he's to be commended. Clearly, he's never been far from controversy but with that in mind his achievements on the most competitive golf tour in the world are all the more remarkable.
The best is yet to come if he can get his head straight and the signs are good. Wayne Gretzsky, father of Johnson's fiancée, Paulina, recently told golf.com: "It’s the first time I can see him say, ‘Gosh, I really miss it, and when I get back I want it to be something special.’"
According to reports, backed up by several other sources, the pair have been playing together at Sherwood Country Club as Johnson prepares for his return to action. Challenged by Gretzsky to shoot the course record one morning - one held by Woods - Johnson did so, shooting 61, followed by a 63, then 61 again two days later.
The man himself played down those scores and so he should, but the point is we could well have the most prolific US golfer of the post-Woods generation returning to action with a desire to succeed which simply didn't exist before. That makes him dangerous, this week and beyond.
Can he go straight away? The odds are stacked against him. But few will be as motivated, and Johnson has offered hints in the past that a break does him no harm. Back in 2012 he won his second start back from an injury while in 2013 he started the season with a win having taken December off.
Furthermore, there's the oft-mentioned 'nappy factor'. DJ recently became a father and surely there's a good chance this confirms his change in perspective.
He could bomb out completely - hence the win-only bet - but I am adamant that 40/1 accounts for that possibility. DJ at his best would be just about favourite for this event and he's too good not to chance.
Day carded a final-round 62 in the Tournament of Champions before a respectable 17th on the wrong track in the Sony Open and he'd get my marginal vote of the trio. However, we were on him at twice the price last season and while I think his chance is obvious, it's no more obvious than sub-20/1 prices imply.
Spieth looks close to guaranteed to play well having threatened on his second start in the event last season and he has come on leaps and bounds since. I'm just slightly put off by comments I dug up from the 2011 US Junior Amateur where he told reporters that he struggles on poa annua having had limited exposure to it growing up.
That could well be a case of too much information clouding the mind but it's a big enough concern to look elsewhere and I'd probably rather back Walker, who is getting better and better and simply loves these putting surfaces.
None are for me though and instead I'll give another chance to Tony Finau at a three-figure price.
The big-hitter from Utah took to life on the PGA Tour like a duck to water at the back-end of 2014, having secured his full playing rights via the Web.com Tour.
Among his best efforts last season was a victory in California and while Christmas came at the wrong time, Finau played nicely in Phoenix last week to finish on the fringes of the top 10.
To an extent he has something to prove under more difficult scoring conditions but he did shoot one of the best rounds of the day last Friday, when TPC Scottsdale was the toughest it's been for years.
Certainly, his length is a big asset at Torrey Pines and there have been some younger, less experienced players challenge for this title in recent seasons including Kyle Stanley, who famously threw away victory on the 72nd hole, and Vegas, whose strengths are similar to Finau's.
Encouragingly, I'm not the only one who thinks this might suit. In a preview of the 2015 season, the Web.com Tour website put forward Torrey Pines as a course Finau himself is looking forward to tackling while golf.com had this to say:
"If there is a breakout performer (among the rookies), it could well be Finau, a churchgoing family man (he’s a father of two) from Salt Lake City. He is 6’4”, weighs 210 pounds and hits the type of crowd-pleasing bombs that tend to play well on the Tour’s big, broad-shouldered courses such as Torrey Pines South."
It's easy to assume that this will be a little too tricky for Finau but at a three-figure price he's worth a small bet.
So too is Morgan Hoffmann, another who played superbly well under tough conditions last Friday on an otherwise low-key week in Phoenix.
A former team-mate of Rickie Fowler at Oklahoma State, Hoffmann remains a promising player with a very strong background including his run to the match play round of the US Amateur at the age of just 15.
I backed him in the Byron Nelson last year and he contended until a disappointing closing nine holes, proving in the process that more difficult tests are likely to suit.
We saw that throughout the campaign, including with two top-10 finishes in world-class company during the FedEx Cup play-offs and top-20 finishes at Sawgrass as well as in this very event.
Hoffmann shot 72-66-72-73 here to finish tied 16th, ahead of Spieth and alongside Hideki Matsuyama, and there's time yet for him to start competing with those superstar youngsters on the PGA Tour.
Truth be told he hasn't started 2015 in scintillating form but two cuts made is a solid foundation for him to build on and Torrey Pines is a good venue to really get the ball rolling.
Cameron Tringale is another who enjoyed a big FedEx Cup and has long been on my mind for this, but he was very poor last week and is hard to support despite having gone close here a couple of years ago.
Gary Woodland ticks the distance box and could bounce back from his first missed cut in a long time but his price doesn't appear to have budged and a better bet may well be Billy Horschel.
The reigning FedEx Cup champion couldn't quite get going last week but played well enough for 30th, a step up on his first two starts of the season as he continues to adjust to having elevated himself to the world stage.
I wrote last week that Horschel is still feeling confident and I've little doubt that he'll see a return to a tough event such as this one as a big positive, given that he's one of the finest ball-strikers on the PGA Tour and is therefore an expert in staying out of trouble.
Two seasons ago, Horschel started 66-69 here to sit second but playing alongside Tiger for the first time in the final two rounds proved too much at that stage in his career as he slumped to 39th. Combine that with 23rd place last year despite a third-round 77 and there's plenty of evidence to suggest that he can win this event if stringing four rounds together on what's now his fifth visit.
Poa annua greens can be something of a leveller which is encouraging given that he failed to make his share in Phoenix and I'm willing to go in again on this proven champion.
For the fourth event in five since his promotion from the Web.com Tour, this standout amateur entered the final round with a chance to win last Sunday and although things didn't pan out, it's money in the bank in more ways than one.
It's hard at this stage to say what sort of test really suits a player who doesn't turn 22 until April, but what we can be sure of is that it's to his advantage that he's got more experience of Torrey Pines than any of the venues he's so far thrived on.
Thomas played in a host of Junior World Golf Championships here throughout his teenage years and made the most of that experience and a sponsors' invite to share 10th in this event a year ago, a stunning performance for one who had only turned professional a few months previously.
Since then he's become a winner courtesy of the Web.com Tour and the fact that his total that week was six-under suggests that a more difficult test to those he tackled throughout January is likely to fit.
The University of Alabama graduate hits the ball a mile and few are putting better at present so everything is in place for a big performance. As for the price, this event isn't as strong as has been the case previously and if Thomas really is the next big thing of US golf - which he looks to be - then he's fully entitled to be a 40-50/1 chance.
Finally, Aaron Baddeley could go close at a three-figure price.
Like Thomas, Baddeley was once heralded as the second coming but while his career hasn't quite panned out as many expected, he's still proven a capable winner.
Interestingly, two of his three PGA Tour titles have come on the west coast in February and the pick of them was the Northern Trust Open which, as mentioned, is a good guide for this given the similar greens.
Baddeley is one of the best putters in the world, especially on poa annua, and like Bubba and Phil he's very much used to playing out of the rough owing to his rather wayward driving.
Sixth here two years ago and fourth at Pebble Beach, conditions look ideal for the Australian to build on a run of form which has seen him go from 48th to 37th and then to 17th in recent weeks.
Interestingly, it was a similarly progressive run of figures which preceded his fourth place in the Travelers last year so now appears the ideal time to chance him.
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