1) to play ON a condition that will
have MORE effect than the public realizes;
2) to play OPPOSITE a condition that
will have LESS effect than the public realizes.
Whenever we judge any effect on a
game we must determine to what degree the effect has already been accounted for
in the point spread. An obvious example would be if a team’s starting
quarterback is out due to injury. Such a fact would most certainly be built
into the point spread, so blindly betting against a team playing a backup QB
offers no edge. This same obviousness would apply to playing the under on a
football game when a bad weather is expected. In these cases, as always, a
sports handicapper must compare his assessment of the effect with the way it is
accounted for in the point spread. Only when there is a discrepancy in
assessment can there be a true edge.
The most over-considered weather
condition is snow. Being easy to see on TV and easy to understand (we’ve all
walked on slippery sidewalks) makes snow hard to ignore. Such conditions are
typically associated with lower scoring. But in reality snow has little effect
on game-play a vast majority of the time. Constantly improving grass/turf
fields, footballs made of advanced synthetics, and the perpetual rotation &
sideline maintenance (keeping them dry and warm) of those same balls has
significantly diminished in recent years the effect of snow on game-play.
In fact, often the effect that does
exist is to the advantage of the offense! Why? Because on a slightly slick
field the offense knows where it is running to while the defense is force to
react abruptly. If a receiver slips the offense may lose one play; if a
defender slips the offense can easily score a touchdown. Since defenses want to
attack rather than react on a slick field they become more aggressive, causing (and,
in turn, giving up) more big plays. Snow presents the sports handicapper with
game conditions the public believes will lead to low scoring when in reality
the opposite is true.
Extreme snow, though, is another
matter to consider. A few games per year are affected by snow to such an extent
that normal game-play is impossible. The simple act of dropping back to pass is
too dangerous to attempt. Kicking a 30 yard field goal is an iffy proposition.
In these rare cases the under is often the play simply because the point spread
cannot be adjusted downward enough (Imagine a total of 17.5 on a NFL game).
Also keep in mind in any low scoring game a big underdog gains value.
The most under-considered weather
condition is wind. You can’t see it on TV, but it can affect game-play in
extreme ways. Today’s 21st century passing games are based upon timing, and
when the wind is blowing hard timing can’t help but be thrown off. The
following is a little known fact: wind that blows ACROSS THE FIELD affects play
much more than wind that blows from end zone to end zone. This is because on
passes and especially field goals wind is harder to compensate for when blowing
side-to-side. (And even lesser known fact is that over 90% of football fields
are set up with the end zones directed north to south; so, though it would be
best to learn about each field individually, you will be correct most the time
if you assume north/south wind will be blowing from end zone to end zone while
east/west will be cross-field). Note that windy conditions affect all teams,
but even more so teams that rely on the passing game. Wind, then, presents the
sports handicapper with conditions that will tend toward low scoring, tend
toward the underdog, and tend against passing teams while most likely not being
properly accounted for in the point spread.
Extreme temperatures must also be
considered. Cold weather football teams playing in high heat occurs most often
early in the season; the effect is typically one of fatigue. A wise (and
creative) play for the sports handicapper would be to consider playing against
the cold weather football team in the second half.
Warm weather football teams playing
in the cold seem to have even more trouble. Ultimately it comes down to what a
football team’s players are used to. The effect of cold weather on warm weather
football teams is well documented; one only needs consider the stats on the
Packers at home or Tampa Bay in the cold. These well-known situations rarely
offer value. The sports handicapper MUST ALWAYS assess the effect while
considering how the line is accounting for it.
The most
valuable information (and the type many players dream about) is knowing
something most people don’t. Finding out before the lines maker that there will
be 3 feet of snow in Buffalo next Sunday would make winning easy. Realistically,
though, in today’s Internet age such a scoop in nearly impossible to come by.
What is not impossible, and what can be equally as profitable, is the ability
to find weather situations the point spread has overcompensated for to play
against while finding others the point spread has under compensated for to play
on.
