This may surprise you, but bad teams are good bets. It
doesn't make a lot of sense because most people usually associate bad teams
with losing and losing with having to pay the bookie. Keep in mind that there's
a point spread involved here fellas and that losing doesn't always mean, well,
losing!
There are two things that we know are true.
1. Point spreads are created based on public perception. The sportsbook doesn't really know who is going to
win and by how many, their simply trying to put out a line that will get
somewhat even action on both sides and/or dupe the novice betting public into
sucker lines that appear to good to be true.
2. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.
ESPECIALLY in the final weeks of the NFL football season. After all, how in the
world could the Green Bay Packers who couldn't fight their way out of a wet
paper bag be heavy favorites over the playoff bound Seattle Seahawks in the
final weeks of the NFL's regular season? Squares being squares, (novice
uniformed bettors) people lined up at the windows to dump cash on the Seahawks
getting the points not even thinking about the fact that the starters may only
play briefly in the first half just to keep them sharp and then the second team
would come in and mop up the game. Not only that, but the Seahawks only goal
was to not sustain any injuries along with maybe trying out a few new plays to
see how the opponents defense would react. Final Score: Packers 23 Seahawks 17
and the game wasn't as close as the final score would indicate.
Lastly, bookies know that the general betting public
likes to root for the "good teams" and "lots of points" to
be scored in a game. With that thought in mind, the better teams and games
foreseen to be high scoring can actually have shaded favorite lines/over totals
completely sucking the value out of these bets and making the only option to
play the bad team or the under. Remember, a bad team can still be a loser
straight up while winning against the spread and that's all that matters!
It's hard to get used to doing, but your bankroll will
quickly fall in love with the results!
Until next time, good luck with your wagers!
