This list of 10 fundamental
concepts for sports betting success is primarily intended for those new to the
discipline, but could be helpful to more experienced bettors. This list isn’t
exhaustive or definitive. Your ‘mileage may vary’ but these are concepts that
provide a good theoretical foundation for profitable handicapping and betting:
1) Educate yourself to how the
line is made and why it moves: A common mistake of the inexperienced
sports bettor is an erroneous understanding of what the pointspread represents.
The conventional wisdom is that the pointspread is a prediction of who will win
and by how much. There is predictive component to it, of course, but its
primary purpose is to split the betting action equally on each side. This
seldom works out perfectly with the opening number which is why the line is
moved after it is made–to attract more money to one side or other.
Understanding as much as possible about the art and science of pointspread
formulation and movement is essential to successful handicapping.
2) Compile and Use Power
Ratings: Successful
sports handicapping is an aggregation of small edges that will add up over time
to produce longterm profits. The key to consistent profitability is to exploit
lines that offer wagering value on one side or the other. The first step in
finding value is to compile and use power ratings, which are simply numeric
ratings of each team. This provides an objective basis for comparison against
the pointspread. You can either make your own power ratings, use the ratings
from publications like The Gold Sheet with or without modification, or a
hybrid of the two. Power ratings are typically a ‘starting point’ for more in
depth handicapping but they’re essential when trying to work through a long
card of college basketball or football.
3) Shop for the Best Price: Once you know how you want to bet it’s
time to go shopping—shop around and find the most advantageous line at which to
place your wager. On the surface a half point here and there may not seem
significant but these small edges add up over time.
4) Look for opportunities to
bet against ‘popular teams': There
are worse things to be in sports gambling than a ‘contrarian’ and more often
than not its advisable to go against ‘popular’ teams. The public has a tendency
to overrate the teams they like and underrate the ones they don’t care as much
about. Furthermore, bookmakers often ‘shade’ the line according to this public
popularity—in essence charging bettors a ‘premium’ for playing the popular
side.
5) When handicapping football,
understand the importance of “key” numbers, particularly 7 and 3: The most common margins of victory in
football are 3 and 7 points along with multiples thereof. For that reason the
corresponding pointspreads are referred to as ‘key numbers’. Moves on to or off
of key numbers are much more significant than garden variety line movement.
6) If you can be objective, a
“local” team can be a great advantage: The trick here, of course, is the
‘objectivity’ component. Assuming you don’t have an emotional investment in the
fortunes of a local team it’s much easier to get in depth information that
could be relevant to your handicapping. The Internet has leveled the playing
field somewhat in terms of getting information once available only to ‘locals’
but you’d be amazed how much actionable information never makes it into the
media. Here’s a tip—if you live near a college campus befriend a member of the
campus police force. The information they have privy to—particularly at bigtime
football schools—is incredible.
7) Require a greater ‘burden of
proof’ for playing the favorite: Pretty much self-explanatory. In
simplest terms, there are three things that can happen in any sports wagering
proposition involving a pointspread: The favorite can win and cover, the
favorite can win and not cover, and the dog can win outright. If you’re betting
a favorite, two of the three possible occurrences will cost you your bet For
that reason, it’s not a bad idea to require a higher standard for playing
favorites. There are opportunities where a favorite can present a good value
but more often than not you’re better looking at underdogs first.
8.) When It Comes to Sports
Services, ‘Don’t Believe the Hype': Here’s the bottom line: if a sports
service says a game is a ‘lock’ or a ‘fix’, or if they say that a point shaving
situation exists, or if they say that they’ve hit 70% or higher for a season,
99.9% of the time–if not more–they are lying. Plain and simple. I’m not going
to naively suggest that situations of point shaving and fixing don’t exist, but
when they do your friendly sports service won’t know about it until they hear
it on the news like the rest of us.
Good
sports handicappers and sports services are like good stockbrokers. They should
be information resources–using their specialized knowledge and experience to do
work that you don’t have the time to do Sports handicapping isn’t rocket
science–it does, however, require a significant investment in time and good
sources of information. Experience and contacts within the sports gambling
industry are also helpful. This is what good sports services offer, but
separating the wheat from the chaff is no small feat. Just remember the old
saying ‘if it sounds to good to be true, it probably is.’
9) Don’t ever think you “know
it all” and don’t trust anyone who says they do: Sports handicapping is like any other
discipline–exceedingly complex. The more you learn about it, the more you
realize how much more that there is to know. The biggest mistake a handicapper
can make–or anyone in any endeavor for that matter– is to think that a complex
discipline is ‘easy’. Minds are like parachutes–they don’t function unless they
are open. It is essential to remember that in sports handicapping, as in life,
there is always more to learn.
10) Work to develop a
disciplined, systematic approach to sports wagering: Simply stated, always do your work.
Knowing when NOT to bet is as important as knowing what to bet on. If you
haven’t had time to accurately handicap a game or games, just pass. Don’t make
significant bets on ‘hunches’ or just to have action. Hard work and intelligent
work are the keys to sports handicapping success.
