Sports Betting - Average Point Power Rating

Sports handicappers have factored in the quality of a team's opposition for a number of years, long before the practice was made known to the general public by college football's BCS system under the generic term of strength of schedule. 

Instead of strength of schedule, the term used by those in sports betting circles is Average Opponent Power Rating, more commonly known as AOPR. What AOPR calculations do is allow sports bettors to gauge the difference in opposition that two teams have faced in a measurable number.

The primary use of AOPR numbers is when handicapping college football and college basketball, as teams can play opponents with a wide range of skill levels, especially prior to the start of conference play. Some college basketball teams are known for lining up an assortment of patsies and amassing a lofty win-loss record, while other teams are known for playing the toughest opposition they could schedule, and as a result would often enter conference play with a record hovering around .500.

 

The Georgetown Hoyas of the 1980s were known for starting every basketball season with a schedule that would include such teams such as Hawaii-Hilo, Morgan State, St. Francis, and St. Leo, and as a result would usually have just one or two losses when Big East play began. Denny Crum's Louisville Cardinals were generally the exact opposite and would face as many ranked teams as possible, often picking up losses, but gaining valuable experience, which Crum believed would help his team as the season moved on. Obviously, there is no correct way of doing things, as both teams enjoyed a great deal of success.

How AOPR Works

Nearly all serious sports handicappers will use a number figure to assess the strength of a particular team. These numbers are known as power ratings and the better a team is, the higher the power rating. Hypothetically, a team with a power rating of 92 is 10 points better than a team with a power rating of 82. 

To figure out a team's AOPR, simply look at its schedule and add the power ratings of each of its opponents together and divide by the number of games played.

For example, let's assume that Duke has played six games on the season, against the following teams, who have the following power ratings:
Louisville 87
Clemson 83
North Carolina St. 84
UCLA 94
South Carolina St. 64
Coppin St. 68

The first step would be to add the power ratings of each of Duke's six opponents together and divide by the number of games played, which in this case is six. Adding 87 + 83 + 84 + 94 + 64 + 68 gives a total of 480. Dividing 480 by six gives us a figure of 80, which is Duke's AOPR calculation.

It doesn't matter which set of power ratings you use for your calculations, as long as they are used consistently. Those who don't want to go through the time and effort of figuring out AOPR ratings, will probably want to use Jeff Sagarin's power ratings, which are updated daily, but also includes AOPR figures under the SCHEDL heading.

Quick Use of AOPR

Once you have figured out the AOPR numbers for each team in a given contest, you're not quite finished yet. AOPR numbers allow bettors to tell which team has faced the most difficult opposition, but nothing more, so we have to do one more calculation, which involves using the scoring averages for each team. 

Let's say that Duke, with its AOPR of 80, is averaging 76 points on offense and allowing 64 points per game. The Blue Devils are hosting Wake Forest, which has an AOPR figure of 83 and has scored an average of 62 points, while allowing an average of 67 points.

What we want to do is create a number based on scoring averages to show if a team is + (plus) or - (minus) and it consists of merely subtracting the average points allowed from the average points scored for each team. In the case of Duke, the Blue Devils are a + 12 (76 - 64 = 12), while Wake Forest is a - 5 (62 - 67 = - 5). Add these numbers to each team's AOPR for an adjusted number, which is the figure we will use for betting purposes.

In Duke's case, the new number is 92 (80 + 12 = 92), while Wake Forest gets a new number of 78 (83 + -5 = 78). If Duke and Wake Forest were meeting on a neutral court, our AOPR numbers say Duke should be a 14-point favorite. Most sports bettors will generally add four points to the home team in college basketball, which would make Duke an 18-point favorite at home or a 10-point favorite on the road. Look for differences of at least six points between your number and the point spread before considering a wager.

This method is just one of several that involves the use of AOPR numbers, but is probably the easiest to use. It involves a serious time commitment, but should pay off for sports bettors in the long run. We will look at other uses of AOPR numbers in the future.