Betting the March Madness Tournament

Second only to the Super Bowl in terms of wagering popularity, the NCAA Tournament is big business for bookmakers and bettors alike. A number of gamblers who typically wouldn't give college basketball a second thought get involved through office pools or placing wagers through sportsbooks and bookies.

Typically when the public gets involved in sports betting, you would think that an anti-public stance would be the way to go. That typically means betting the underdog and the games to go under the total. Surprisingly, that hasn't worked out during March Madness.

Looking at the past three years worth of tournament games, we see that favorites and overs have actually been profitable straight across the board. But if we dig into the results a little deeper, we'll find some interesting trends that have taken place.

Betting Sides

As we mentioned above, betting favorites have been profitable during the past three years of the tournament, as they have gone a solid 107-83-2, which is a healthy 56.3-percent clip. But betting large favorites has been an even better wager, as favorites of 10 or more points are a solid 27-18-1, which is an excellent 60 percent ratio.

There doesn't appear to be any cutoff point, as favorites of 10 to 14.5 points are 12-8-1, while favorites of 15 to 19.5 are 8-6. Favorites of 20 or more points, which is typically the No. 1 seeds against the No. 16 seeds, are 7-4 against the number.

But there are several instances where betting the underdogs have proven to be profitable. Naturally, if the big favorites are covering a high percentage of the time, the smaller favorites can't be doing as well. Favorites of 2.5 points or less are just 19-28 against the spread, while favorites of 3 to 5.5 points are 18-26 against the number.

Totals

Over the past three years, 103 games have gone over the total and 86 have gone under the total. There are several pushes, which accounts for the discrepancy is games played. So basically, 54.5 percent of the games have gone over the posted total.

But if we exclude those games where the total is under 125, our winning percentage jumps to 57.9, as out of those games with a total of less than 125, there has been just one game that went over the total and 12 that went under.

So essentially, we're looking for those games expected to be extremely low scoring to be exactly that, while other games tend to go over the posted total. The difference between those games that have a total of under 125 or less compared to those between 125 and 129.5 has been drastic. Those games with a total between 125 and 129.5 have seen 36 overs and 16 unders, making them one of the best over bets during the past three years.

As always, just because something has happened in the past does not mean it will happen again in the future, but it tends to be a good starting point for your handicapping.